Is Original Thinking Statistically Rare?

Which is X’s match?

In 1951, psychologist Solomon Asch began a series of experiments that revealed something revealing about human behavior.

Participants were shown a line and asked to identify which of three other lines matched its length.

The answer was obvious.

But there was a catch.

Everyone else in the room was an actor. They were secretly working with the researcher. They had been instructed to give the same, deliberately incorrect answer.

The actors answered first. The real participant answered last.

What happened?

Across the critical trials, participants agreed with the obviously wrong majority about 37% of the time.

And approximately 75% conformed at least once.

It was surprising to learn that people were willing to publicly contradict what they could see with their own eyes.

Now imagine the same experiment in a conference room:

The senior most leader shares an opinion. Three direct reports agree. The fourth has serious reservations.

Asch's research raises questions for leaders:

  1. Who disagrees with you? If everyone consistently agrees with your thinking, how confident are you that you're hearing what they actually believe?

  2. Who speaks first? The first few opinions can influence everyone who follows. Are you unintentionally creating consensus before the discussion has begun?

  3. How do you respond to dissent? When someone challenges your position, does your reaction encourage others to speak or teach them to remain silent?

  4. Are you mistaking silence for agreement? How often do people leave your meetings with concerns they never voiced?

  5. What happens when someone stands alone? Asch also found that the presence of a single dissenting ally could dramatically reduce conformity.

One practical experiment for your next meeting:

Before sharing your own position, ask everyone to write down their recommendation independently.

Then invite the most junior person to speak before the most senior.

And before closing the discussion, ask: "What might we be missing?"

Asch's experiment was conducted more than 70 years ago. The underlying human tendency remains relevant wherever people make decisions together.

Research: Solomon E. Asch, "Opinions and Social Pressure" (1955), Scientific American.

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